Organizations don't have one AI opportunity—they have dozens. Each one competes for:
The enterprises that succeed don't just pick "good" AI projects. They build balanced portfolios that:
Thinking at portfolio level is what separates operators from strategists.
Evaluate initiatives across two dimensions:
Strategic Value:
Execution Feasibility:
Quick Wins: Do now—high value, easy to execute Big Bets: Invest carefully—high value, requires significant effort Maybe Later: Consider if resources allow—lower value but achievable Avoid: Don't pursue—low value and difficult
| Indicator | Healthy | Unhealthy |
|---|---|---|
| Horizon mix | 70/20/10 | 100% H1 or 50%+ H3 |
| Quick wins | 3-5 active | 0 or 10+ |
| Big bets | 1-2 active | 0 or 5+ |
| Risk distribution | Varied | All high or all low |
| Learning rate | Weekly insights | Quarterly at best |
AI portfolios must generate learning, not just ROI:
Every initiative should answer questions:
Structure for learning:
| Anti-Pattern | Problem | Solution |
|---|---|---|
| Pilot purgatory | Many pilots, nothing scales | Clear scale criteria, kill or scale decisions |
| Big bang syndrome | All investment in one moonshot | Balanced portfolio with quick wins |
| Risk aversion | Only safe bets, no innovation | Protected budget for H2/H3 experiments |
| Flavor of the month | New priorities constantly | Stable investment thesis, regular reviews |
| Isolated initiatives | No learning transfer | Portfolio-level governance and sharing |
Balance investments across three horizons:
Horizon 1: Optimize (0-6 months)
Horizon 2: Extend (6-18 months)
Horizon 3: Transform (18+ months)
A healthy portfolio typically allocates:
Every AI initiative sits on a value-risk curve:
Low Risk / Low Value:
Medium Risk / Medium Value:
High Risk / High Value:
The portfolio question isn't "which has the best ROI?" but "what mix of risk/reward fits our strategy and capacity?"
QUARTERLY PORTFOLIO REVIEW
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PORTFOLIO HEALTH
Active Initiatives: ___
Budget Allocated: $___
Budget Spent: $___
Team Capacity: ___% utilized
Horizon Mix:
H1: __% (target: 70%)
H2: __% (target: 20%)
H3: __% (target: 10%)
INITIATIVE STATUS
| Initiative | Status | Budget | Value Delivered | Learning |
|------------|--------|--------|-----------------|----------|
| | 🟢🟡🔴 | | | |
| | 🟢🟡🔴 | | | |
| | 🟢🟡🔴 | | | |
DECISIONS NEEDED
Scale:
• [Initiative ready to scale]
Kill:
• [Initiative to stop]
Pivot:
• [Initiative to redirect]
New:
• [New investment to consider]
KEY LEARNINGS
What we learned this quarter:
1.
2.
3.
Patterns to reuse:
1.
2.
Mistakes to avoid:
1.
2.
NEXT QUARTER PRIORITIES
1.
2.
3.
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Context:
Step 1: Generate the Opportunity List
Brainstorm 10+ AI opportunities across:
| # | Opportunity | Domain |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | ||
| 2 | ||
| 3 | ||
| 4 | ||
| 5 | ||
| 6 | ||
| 7 | ||
| 8 | ||
| 9 | ||
| 10 |
Step 2: Score Each Opportunity
Rate 1-5 on each dimension:
| # | Strategic Value | Feasibility | Total | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 2 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 3 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 4 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 5 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 6 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 7 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 8 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 9 | H1/H2/H3 | |||
| 10 | H1/H2/H3 |
Step 3: Assign to Quadrants
Place each opportunity:
QUICK WINS (Do Now):
•
•
•
BIG BETS (Invest Carefully):
•
•
MAYBE LATER:
•
•
AVOID:
•
•
Step 4: Build the Portfolio
Allocate your $2M budget:
| Investment | Initiative | Budget | Team | Horizon |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | $ | FTE | ||
| 2 | $ | FTE | ||
| 3 | $ | FTE | ||
| 4 | $ | FTE | ||
| 5 | $ | FTE | ||
| Total | $2M | 5 |
Step 5: Validate the Mix
Check your portfolio balance:
| Horizon | Target | Your Allocation |
|---|---|---|
| H1 (Optimize) | 70% | % |
| H2 (Extend) | 20% | % |
| H3 (Transform) | 10% | % |
| Check | ✓/✗ |
|---|---|
| At least 2 quick wins included | |
| At most 1-2 big bets | |
| Risk is distributed | |
| Learning opportunities identified |
In Module 6.4: Operating Models for AI, you'll learn how to design the organizational structures, processes, and governance that enable AI to scale across the enterprise.
You've reached the end of this module. Review the checklist below to ensure you've understood the key concepts.